Adam Ash

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Friday, January 20, 2006

Iraq election results

A coalition of Shiite parties won 128 of 275 seats, falling 10 votes short of a majority. A coalition of Kurdish parties took 53 seats, the second-largest bloc. The largest Sunni Arab party, the Iraqi Accordance Front, won 44 seats and another Sunni party won 11. A party headed by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite, took 25 seats. Ahmed Chalabi, the former exile whom America originally wanted as their puppet ruler, won fuck all, not even a seat for himself.

The Shiite and Kurdish coalitions are within three votes of the two-thirds needed to form a new government. Small parties won a total of 14 seats, making a wide range of combinations possible.

The Shiites make up about 60 percent of the population, Sunnis about 20 percent, and Kurds 15 to 20 percent.

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the largest Shiite party, said that he'd seek to include Sunni Arabs in a new government. "The doors are open and no one wants to confront, harm or deprive them from their legitimate, constitutional rights," said Mr. Hakim at the headquarters of his party, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution. "They are our brothers and they will get their rights." But Mr. Hakim said that the choice of which Sunni leaders to include would depend on "who is closer to us regarding the principles we believe in."

He's bullshitting the Sunnis, obviously. The Shiite and Kurdish parties want strong regional governments so they can keep the oil wealth of Iraq to themselves. They don't want to share it with the Sunnis, who have no oilfields in their region, and who used to oppress the Shiites and Kurds when Saddam ruled.

The Sunnis are going to get fucked.

The Kurds will go off on their own, ruled by their warlords, and irritating Turkey who has a large Kurdish population.

The Shiites will establish a theocracy for themselves, strongly allied with Iran, and causing the Shiites across the border in Saudi-Arabia to challenge the Saudi royals.

What with all that going on, and Israel waiting to bomb Iran to stop it from building nukes, the Middle East will stay hot long after we leave, which should be sometime this year, unless the Republican Party want to lose in November, which they don't. It will be interesting to watch the GOP telling Bush to get his ass out of Iraq, and him coming up with BS reasons why it's time to leave, as BS as his current reasons why we shouldn't.

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