US politics: the Mommy party takes over from the Daddy party

The rise of the Mommy Party
Pelosi's at the helm, Hillary's in the wings
and - for now - Bush is in the doghouse
By Michael Goodwin/NY Daily News

With Democrats seizing control of the House and Senate, a debate has started over how significant their victory was. Does it potentially mark a generational power shift? Was it more a repudiation of George Bush and the GOP than an embrace of Democrats? What does it mean for the presidential election in two years?

My answers: Yes, yes and Hillary.

To start with the last, I think the mood of the country has shifted so sharply that Hillary Clinton has gone from being the front-runner for her party's 2008 nomination to being virtually unstoppable. The odds of her being elected President are greater today than they were a mere week ago.

Her own reelection landslide is a big reason, but not the only one. So many Americans, I believe, are so disgusted with the Republican Party that they are open to electing a Democratic President - even if that Democrat is a woman. There's a clear gender and cultural issue in politics today and it favors Democrats.

Republicans, with their macho men and muscular policy prescriptions, are in decline because they are out of answers. Dems are getting better at seizing their opportunities, and doing it with women playing a leading role.

Put another way, Mommy is taking over because Daddy screwed up.

Nancy Pelosi is a case in point. Despite attacks on her fitness to lead in a time of war, voters made her the first female speaker of the House. The belief that Dems, as the "nanny" party, are squishy on security was trumped by fury at the Bush administration's incompetence in Iraq. Voters now view the parties almost equally in terms of security. Even the best Republican candidates in 2008 - John McCain and Rudy Giuliani - will have an uphill battle because of Bush's legacy.

The extent of the new Dem power goes beyond the congressional results. State politics across the country went decidedly blue, with over 275 seats and nine legislative chambers switching from GOP to Democratic control. Dems took six governors' chairs from Republicans, giving them 28 of 50, their first majority since 1994.

Sen. Chuck Schumer, who is a kingmaker after helping to pick more centrist Dem candidates for Senate and matching the GOP in fund-raising, loves the results, but worries they're tenuous. "If we don't produce for people, we could blow it in 2008," he told me. "The public is up for grabs. We still have a lot to do, but if we succeed, the next election could provide a lock for a generation." He's finishing a book that aims to lay out the party model. Titled "Positively American," its subtitle is "Winning back the middle class majority, one family at a time."

Schumer's right that this election did not guarantee a realignment. We're in a transition phase, and Dems are on political probation on a host of issues, security among them. Yet their victory and the GOP vapor lock puts them in the driver's seat for 2008. Indeed, of the 33 Senate seats up for election then, 21 are held by Republicans. Some of those GOP seats are safe, but it's still a lot of turf to defend.

Then there's Hillary. The baggage is there, but her reelection race showed how far she has come. Actually, it was a race only in that she was competing against herself. Her opponent was a joke, and the only issue was whether she would hurt herself with unforced errors. She didn't, she played it safe and spent money like a drunken sailor - $29 million, more than any candidate in America. The result was a whopping 67% of the vote.

And she pulled it off by keeping one eye on 2008. She traveled the country to raise money for herself and others and avoided any New York-style liberal positions that could haunt her in a presidential race.

So she's ready. If her party plays it smart for two years, America could be, too.