Well, if those fucking Israelis & Palestinians & Hamas & Hezbollah & Syrians & Iranians & Lebanese aren't at it again

And George W. Bush yelps about it like a little puppy. Fact is, only the President of the United States can do anything about the Israelites vs. the Hamasraelites, but unfortunately the President of the United States is George W. Bush.

Here are some pieces about the latest fracas, which will continue until it simmers down again, after which it will flare up again and simmer down again, on and on, until there's a new President of the United States who isn't George W. Bush and who may do something about it.

What's really bizarre about all this, is that Hezbollah is now a regional player all of its own. It's armed by Iran via Syria, it has two cabinet ministers in the Lebanon ministry, and to all intents and purposes, it decided to strike at Israel and capture Israeli soldiers all by its ownsome -- probably against the wishes of the Lebanese government, and with a nod from Iran (not that it needs Iran's say-so).

Hezbollah's charismatic leader, Shaikh Hasan Nasrullah, took Hezbollah over at the age of 32, ridiculously young for a Middle Eastern warlord. He took the decision to take the organization into Lebanon's politics where it's been strikingly successful, much for the same reasons that Hamas is successful amongst Palestinians -- because it is not corrupt, and because it is a very supportive charitable and educational organization, besides having its own militia. It signed a Memorandum of understanding with popular Christian Lebanese leader Michel Aoun, on February 6, 2006. This historical document brought Hezbollah together with Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, which controls almost half the seats in the Lebanese parliament.

Hezbollah knows how to play the political game, and now it has proven it knows how to play the military game too: while the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese will resent Hezbollah for making Lebanon an Israeli bombing target, the rest of the Arabs are applauding. And Egypt and Jordan, who've signed peace treaties with Israel, now look like ninnies on the Arab street, and especially on their own Arab streets.

The big winner in all this: Iran. Not only are the Shiites they back in Iraq set to take over that country, but Hezbollah, whom they also back, are the biggest players in Lebanon. As soon as Iran goes nuclear, they'll be the big cahuna in the Middle East, and there ain't one fucking thing George Bush can do about it, because he's the one who, by starting a stupid war in Iraq, has handed Iraq over to Iran.

This is what happens when you have fucknuts like the neocons and Cheney meddling in the Middle East, with some BS idea of establishing US supremacy in a region that they know sweet blow-all about. More reason for us to get the fuck out of there ASAP.


1. "This Is a Big Disaster for the Lebanese." -- by Dahr Jamail

Once again the U.S. government has refused to condemn the Israeli invasion of Lebanon as the bombs fall on Beirut, killing scores of civilians.

In a moment of levity while driving to the border, Abu Talat turned to me and said, "You know what I miss?" I replied, "What do you miss sir?" He smiled and said, "Iraqi chai!" He then turns to our driver and asked him if he'd ever had Iraqi chai, then went on to brag about how tasty it is. "It is the greatest of chais," he said proudly when looking back to me once again.

When we arrived at the Lebanese border this morning we found thousands of people streaming across in cars with their luggage lashed on top, and many on foot pulling wheeled suitcases.

Little Bush, the ever obedient spokesman for Bush, announced that he thinks Syria should be punished for their role in supporting Hezbollah, so the mood in Damascas is one of anxious waiting to see what comes next. The how and when of the punishment is what is on our minds.

So the latest Israeli onslaught of Lebanon is in full swing, and with the Israelis need for the water of southern Lebanon, perhaps this occupation of Lebanon may last longer than the last one of 22 years. If indeed Syria gave the green light for Hezbollah to cross the UN line in southern Lebanon and launch their attack on Israeli soldiers where they detained two soldiers and killed another eight, they have effectively handed the Israeli war planners an excuse for all out war against Lebanon. In addition, the Hezbollah attack, if indeed supported by Syria, would give the U.S. the ability to give a green light to Israel to attack Syria. We wait, watch, and hope that the bombs don't begin to fall on Damascas.

A reported 15,000 people crossed the Lebanese border into Syria on Thursday, seeking refuge from widespread bombings in Beirut, carried out by Israeli F-16 warplanes. Today, the situation continued, with reports of bombed petrol stations, police stations, and a hospital.

Interviewing people at the border who had fled the bombs in Beirut, I felt like I was back in Iraq by what people were telling me.

"I was in an area south of Beirut which was bombed heavily by the Israelis," 55 year-old electrician Ali Suleiman told me, "There were so many refugees in shelters nearby us, which was also nearby an old hospital which the Israelis bombed last night. It was terrifying at night when they attacked our area, and the Israelis thought the hospital was an ammunition dump for Hezbollah, so they bombed the hospital. Both Syrian and Lebanese people are leaving now. There is no more food, not even bread. There was no more electricity or water in our area. If this situation continues, it will be a giant catastrophe."

The same tactics I've seen used by the U.S. in Fallujah, Al-Qa'im and other cities in Iraq.

I was told a similar story by a 22 year-old Lebanese student, Nebham Razaq Hamed, who was in southern Beirut. "The bombing at night was continuous and has continued today, they are using warplanes and sometimes artillery. Everybody is in a panic because of the haphazard bombing which is killing so many civilians now. The Israelis are terrorizing the people intentionally by not discriminating between fighters and civilians."

As the level of fighting deepens, one can only hope that other forms of terrorism don't beset the people of Lebanon, particularly the women. In Ruth Rosen's "The Hidden War on Women in Iraq," an incredible piece posted on TomDispatch recently, the disastrous situation for women caught up in the chaos of war is outlined well. This must read paints the tragic picture of what we can only hope will not descend on the women of Beirut as the Israeli siege of that city grinds on.

A man from Saudi Arabia on a bus with his family said, "Are the Israelis not occupying enough Arab land already?"

It is only 127 kilometers from Beirut to Damascas, so the attacks were very fresh on the minds of the people I spoke with-many of them with shaky hands.

Others told me that the Bekaa Valley of central Lebanon, located on a high plateau situated between the Mt. Lebanon and Anti-Lebanon mountain ranges, is being bombed, including the ancient city of Baalbek. The city, which began at the end of the third millennium BC, was originally Phoenician, is located near two rivers and shortly after a Roman colony was founded there by Julius Caesar in 47 BC, construction on the massive temple complex began in earnest. Whether the temples are being bombed is doubtful, but the nearby city of Baalbek, where Hezbollah controls the area, has been bombed according to two people I interviewed.

"It's very bad there, as the Israelis are attacking civilians, bombing police and petrol stations, and even the fuel storage depots," said a 50 year-old Kuwait man who was fleeing Beirut, "In fact, they have even bombed the airport once again. I saw F-16's bombing and there is smoke everywhere. This is a big disaster for the Lebanese."

When asked what he thought it would take to end the fighting, he promptly replied, "It looks like the Arab governments are not moving their asses, so I am leaving."

(Dahr Jamail is an independent journalist who spent over 8 months reporting from occupied Iraq. He presented evidence of US war crimes in Iraq at the International Commission of Inquiry on Crimes Against Humanity Committed by the Bush Administration in New York City in January 2006. He writes regularly for TruthOut, Inter Press Service, Asia Times and TomDispatch, and maintains his own web site, dahrjamailiraq.com.)


2. Voices of Peace Muffled by Rising Mideast Strife -- by Michael Slackman (from New York Times)

Cairo - A few months ago, representatives of every Lebanese political faction gathered in downtown Beirut to discuss the issues that divided them - including how and when to disarm the Hezbollah militia.

Intent on keeping its weapons, however, Hezbollah has stymied that discussion by crossing into Israel, killing and capturing Israeli soldiers and prompting a fierce Israeli counterattack that has all of Lebanon in a defensive posture.

"It is strange that one man representing a faction of the Shia, Hassan Nasrallah, is holding the whole Lebanese population hostage," said Elie Fawaz, a Lebanese political analyst and critic of Hezbollah, speaking of the Hezbollah leader.

With three Israeli soldiers kidnapped - one now in Gaza and two in Lebanon - and Israel carrying out military reprisals, there is for now less room in the Middle East for moderate voices, voices of peace, according to political analysts, government officials and security officials in Syria, Jordan and Egypt. The region's agenda, as often in the past, is largely being set by militants - with the masses swept along in emotion, anger and vengeance.

"They are happy, very happy," said Marwan Shahadeh, an Islamist and researcher in Amman, Jordan, speaking about the groups that want to focus on war with Israel.

The same dynamics are true of governments. The leaders of Egypt and Jordan, the only two Arab countries with peace treaties with Israel, are facing increasing hostility in the news media and on their own streets, while Iran and Syria, strong opponents of peace with Israel, have seen their credibility on the street increase. Sensing the tension among their people, Egyptian and Jordanian officials have stepped up domestic security efforts. In Egypt officials have moved to rein in the news media and stop street demonstrations. In Jordan, officials have pressed older members of the Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, to rein in its more militant young members.

"They are in great embarrassment," Taher al-Masry, a former prime minister of Jordan, said of Jordan and Egypt. "These two countries have signed peace treaties, but having and observing peace with Israel is not the same as letting Israel do what it likes because we have peace with them. I think there is a major burden on both countries to do something. I don't know what, but something."

Regional momentum is supporting hard-liners. Newspapers and television commentators have assailed Egypt and Jordan for trying to negotiate a peaceful solution between Hamas and Israel. The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, who planned to call a referendum on whether to support a two-state solution, has been increasingly silenced. Even the Hamas leadership in Gaza, which had sought to forge a consensus with other Palestinian factions, found itself trumped by its more militant members.

Trying to explain his own impotence, Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, told an Egyptian newspaper that he had tried to negotiate a settlement between Hamas and Israel over the capture of Cpl. Gilad Shalit. He said he had worked out a deal - but a third party pressed Hamas to back out.

Mr. Mubarak said he did not want to name the third party, but political analysts here said they believed that it was most likely Iran or Syria.

"Politically active Islamist groups like these kinds of battles because they reap misery for the people who then automatically adhere to extremist groups," said Aly Salem, an Egyptian playwright who has supported normalizing ties with Israel, but says now that there is no margin even to discuss such ideas.

The crisis directly involves four parties - Hezbollah, Lebanon, Israel and Hamas, but is being driven by multiple and diverging agendas. That has often been the case in Lebanon, which for decades has been a proxy battlefield for foreign forces. Gaza has also been a front for varying agendas, from Iran's desire to strengthen its regional role, to the exiled faction of Hamas trying to maintain control over its group. Caught in the middle are civilians.

While recent events seem to have served Hezbollah's interests, there is also a strong feeling that the decision to take that action was guided by Iran's interests as well. Leaders of the top world powers, including Russia and China, agreed this week to haul Iran back before the United Nations Security Council for what they said appeared to be its unwillingness to negotiate in good faith over efforts to stop its enrichment of uranium.

"They have a lot of interests, strategically, in the kidnapping, in light of their position today, which is very uncomfortable regarding their nuclear capability," said Jonathan Fighel, a retired Israeli colonel who is a senior researcher at the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism. He said he did not believe that Syria benefited by seeing the crisis escalate. Syria has far less influence with Hezbollah since its forces were withdrawn from Lebanon and is at risk of being attacked by Israel.

Those benefiting most from the bombs and the blood are those groups that want to see the rise of radicalism throughout the region. Even before this crisis, people were increasingly disillusioned with the political process as a means to achieve change, and were increasingly offering support to groups like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

The victory of Hamas in Palestinian elections, and the subsequent decision by the West to deny it financial support, had a strong influence on Arab public opinion, with many saying it was hypocritical not to support the duly elected government.

Now those groups, from Hamas to Hezbollah to the Brotherhood, are trying to use the events in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip to build support. On its Web site, the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt said, "Hezbollah, with its modest military capabilities relative to the capabilities of organized state armies, was able to achieve what several Arab governments did not do while they were satisfied to remain silent about the slaughter of our brothers in Palestine."


3. Global Protests at Indiscriminate Israeli Bombings of Lebanon -- from juancole.com

The Associated Press puts the Israeli offensive against Lebanon on Friday succinctly: 'Israel again bombarded Lebanon's airport and main roads in the most intensive offensive against the country in 24 years. For the first time, it struck the crowded Shiite neighborhood of south Beirut around Hezbollah's headquarters, toppling overpasses and sheering facades off apartment buildings. Concrete from balconies smashed into parked cars, and car alarms set off by the blasts blared for hours. The toll in three days of clashes rose to 73 killed in Lebanon and at least 12 Israelis, as international alarm grew over the fighting, and oil prices rose to above $78 a barrel. The U.N. Security Council held an emergency session on the violence, and Lebanon accused Israel of launching "a widespread barbaric aggression." In addition to the fighting in Lebanon, Israel pressed ahead with its Gaza Strip offensive against Hamas, striking the Palestinian economy ministry offices early today.'

Courtesy al-Anwar: 'Israel bombed the HQ of Hizbullah leader Shaikh Hasan Nasrullah, probably hoping to kill him, but he survived and launched more retaliatory strikes on Israeli targets. More Katyusha rockets rained down on northern Israel, forcing many residents to flee. And Hizbullah used a drone to attack an Israeli warship, setting it aflame and forcing it to return to port. Four sailors are missing.'

The Israeli attacks may well inflict long-term damage on the limping Lebanese economy.

Israeli spokesmen are saying that they want to finish off Hizbullah. But you can't finish off a mass movement among 1.35 million people. Besides, there wouldn't be any Hizbullah if Israel had not invaded Lebanon in 1982 and occupied the south for twenty-two years. Israel's grabby occupation radicalized and helped mobilize the Lebanese Shiites. They aren't going to become less radical and less mobilized as a result of the current hamfisted Israeli assault.

On Friday, thousands of protesters rallied in Cairo, Amman, Gaza City, and Baghdad, as well as throughout Turkey, to protest massive Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. There was also a demonstration in Dearborn, Michigan. There are 25,000 Americans in Lebanon, now in severe danger from Israeli bombings. Most of the demonstrations in the Middle East not only condemned Israel but also the United States.

Americans have to understand that when Israel goes wild and bombs a civilian airport and civilian neighborhoods in Beirut, a lot of the world's Catholics (Lebanon is partially a Catholic country) and its 1.4 billion Muslims blame the United States for it. Israel is given billions every year by the United States, including sophisticated weaponry that is now being trained on the slums of south Beirut. It should also be remembered that Bin Laden said, at least, that he started thinking about hitting New York when he saw that 1982 Israeli destruction of the skyscrapers or "towers" of Lebanon. How many future Bin Ladens are watching with horror and rage and feelings of revenge as Israel drops bombs on civilian tenement buildings? When will this blow back on Americans? (I mean blow back in other ways than an already painful further spike in petroleum prices).

The Vatican called Israel's assault on Lebanon an "attack on a sovereign and free nation."

Reuters reports on the reaction of French President Jacques Chirac: He said Israel's offensive in Lebanon following the capture of two Israeli soldiers and the killing of eight more by Hizbollah guerrillas was "completely disproportionate. One can ask oneself whether there isn't a sort of desire to destroy Lebanon," he said. But he also condemned Hizbollah and the Palestinian group Hamas, which abducted a third Israeli soldier, as "totally irresponsible" for the attacks which provoked Israel's response.

Italian Premier Romano Prodi said, "We deplore this escalation and the serious damage to Lebanon's infrastructure and the civilian victims that these raids have caused."

The USG Open Source Center translates from Text of report by Spanish national RNE Radio 1 on 14 July in Spain this statement by the Spanish prime minister (Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero): "In my view, Israel is mistaken. Defence is one thing, it is legitimate, and another is launching a counter-offensive of general attack in Lebanon, in Gaza, which will surely bring nothing but a stepping up of the violence."

Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said his government condemned both the militant group Hezbollah's abduction of two Israeli soldiers on Wednesday and the Israeli reaction to it. He added: "We also condemn the Israeli attacks against Lebanon, including the bombing of the airport in Beirut and the naval blockade of Lebanese waters. This is completely unacceptable, and amounts to a dangerous escalation of the situation."


4.BEIRUT (Reuters)

Israeli air strikes killed at least 27 civilians on Saturday, pounding Lebanon for a fourth straight day to punish it for letting Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hizbollah fighters threaten northern Israel.

President Bush said Syria should persuade Hizbollah to stop cross-border attacks from Lebanon's mainly Shi'ite Muslim south.

An Israeli missile wrecked a van near the southern port of Tire, killing 15 passengers and wounding six, police said. The van was carrying families fleeing the village of Marwaheen after Israeli loudspeaker warnings to leave their homes. Israeli aircraft also bombed a Hizbollah office in southern Beirut's Haret Hreik district, and attacked roads, bridges and petrol stations in north, east and south Lebanon, killing at least 12 people and wounding 32, security sources said. Israel's campaign, launched after Hizbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed eight on Wednesday, has killed 93 people, all but two civilians, and paralyzed Lebanon's economy.

It aims not just to force Hizbollah to free the soldiers, but to destroy its ability to launch rocket attacks on northern Israel, where four civilians have been killed this week.

"The best way to stop the violence is for Hizbollah to lay down its arms and to stop attacking. And therefore I call upon Syria to exert influence over Hizbollah," Bush told a joint news conference with Russian President Putin. Israel's aerial assault on Lebanon has drawn mounting world criticism but the White House has said President Bush would not press Israel to halt its military operation.

Israeli army chief Dan Halutz said on Friday more targets would be bombed in a bid to remove Hizbollah from the border and replace it with a force answering to the Lebanese government. He said Israel was also telling the Lebanese that "they swallowed a cancer that has to be regurgitated, and if not this country will pay a price as in the past" -- an allusion to Israel's 1982 invasion to drive out Palestinian guerrillas. The Israeli army said on Saturday it had struck about 150 targets in Lebanon so far, fewer than a dozen of them linked directly to Hizbollah. Most have hit civilian installations.

Israel was bombarding roads in the north and east to try to seal Lebanon's land border with Syria. It has already bombed Beirut's international airport and blockaded Lebanese ports.

Hizbollah fired more than two dozen rockets at towns in northern Israel, slightly wounding several people. Hizbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, speaking shortly after Israeli jets destroyed his Beirut home, announced on Friday that his fighters had hit an Israeli warship off Beirut. Several Hizbollah rockets hit the Israeli town of Tiberias on Saturday, the furthest they have landed so far. No casualties were reported in the town, 35 km (22 miles) from the border.

The Israeli military has recovered the body of one of four sailors reported missing after the warship was hit. Israeli military commander Brigadier-General Ido Nehushtan said the body was found at sea and that the military was searching for the other missing sailors. He said Hizbollah had launched an Iranian-made missile at the vessel.

The worst violence in Lebanon in a decade coincided with an Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip begun last month to try to get back another captured soldier, halt Palestinian rocket fire and destroy the institutions of the Hamas-led government. Israeli aircraft attacked the Palestinian Economy Ministry and a house in Gaza on Saturday. One Hamas militant was killed in the strike on the house and eight people were wounded. Since the Gaza offensive was launched on June 28, Israel has killed about 85 Palestinians, around half of them militants.

Syria's ruling Baath Party said it would support Hizbollah and Lebanon against the "barbaric Israeli aggression." The pledge came despite the sometimes hostile ties prevailing between Damascus and Beirut since Syria ended its 29-year military presence in Lebanon last year.

The Beirut government, led by an anti-Syrian coalition, is unable or unwilling to disarm Hizbollah, the only Lebanese faction to keep its guns after the 1975-90 civil war. After Israeli troops quit Lebanon in 2000, Hizbollah confined its attacks largely to the disputed Shebaa Farms area, but its bold assault on Wednesday shattered the tacit rules that had kept the lid on border violence with Israel for six years. The blistering Israeli response is the fiercest since a 17-day blitz on Hizbollah strongholds in the south in 1996.


5. Ahmadinejad warns not to strike Syria

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned Israel against extending its offensive in Lebanon to neighboring Syria and said such a move would equate to an attack against the Islamic world, the official Iranian news agency reported Friday.

Syria and Shiite Muslim Iran are the top backers of the Shiite Hezbollah guerrilla in Lebanon.

"If the occupying regime of Jerusalem attacks Syria, it will be equivalent to an attack on the whole Islamic world and the regime (Israel) will face a crushing response," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying by the official IRNA news agency. Ahmadinejad made the comments in a telephone conversation with Syrian President Bashar Assad to assure him of his support. The Iranian leader called on Muslim countries to create a united front against Israel. "The Islamic world, especially countries in this region, need more unity and integrity, particularly in the context of Lebanon and Palestine," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying. "The Islamic republic of Iran supports the case (for unity) with all its diplomatic capacity," he said.


6. Despite Hezbollah's Ties to Iran and Syria, It Also Acts Alone -- by Paul Richter, Josh Meyer and Sebastian Rotella (from Los Angeles Times)
The US has blamed the militants' patrons for the Middle East crisis, but some experts aren't sure

The Bush administration was quick to pin responsibility on Iran and Syria when Hezbollah militants captured two Israeli soldiers this week. Yet those countries may not have specifically planned and ordered the raid that has brought the Middle East to the edge of war, U.S. officials and terrorism experts say.

Iran and Syria each have long-standing ties to Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim militant group, and no Western government doubts that they provide financial, political and logistical support. But some officials and experts say Hezbollah can also move on its own initiative, for its own reasons, even as it seeks to avoid any move that would displease its chief patrons.

"It sometimes does act on its own," said Wayne White, who was a senior official in the State Department's intelligence arm until last year.

White said intelligence agencies have differed on how much Iran might be spending on Hezbollah but that they agree there are very strong ties between that country and the group. Even so, he said, it would be an overstatement to say that Hezbollah is a "pawn" of Iran.

Wednesday's kidnapping "could have been someone seizing a moment of opportunity - a bunch of Hezbollah guys could have done it without even thinking they need permission from on high," said a U.S. counterterrorism official, who said he was basing his speculation on experience with the group and spoke on condition of anonymity while discussing intelligence matters. "Terrorist operations can happen at any moment and be quite fluid."

The possible role of Iran and Syria has become an issue as the raid brought fierce Israeli retaliation and stirred fears that fighting could engulf more of the region. If Iran and Syria ordered the Hezbollah raid, it might signal their willingness to see the conflict continue and widen. But if they did not, U.S. and Israeli charges that their longtime adversaries were somehow involved could heighten the tension in the region.

U.S. officials declined to offer specific evidence of Iranian or Syrian involvement in Wednesday's raid, in which eight Israeli soldiers were killed. But the Bush administration, in a statement afterward, said the two nations "bear responsibility" based on their longtime ties and support.

Sean McCormack, the chief State Department spokesman, said the countries "subcontract" terrorist attacks through Hezbollah.

"Hezbollah received material support from Iran.... The Syrian government provides political as well as other kinds of support," he said. "So I think it's really time for everybody to acknowledge that these two states do have some measure of control over Hezbollah."

At the same time, even the State Department's annual report on terrorism notes that Hezbollah is capable of independent action.

"Hezbollah is closely allied with Iran and often acts at its behest, but it also can and does act independently," this year's report says.

Israel declared that primary responsibility for the raid lay with the Lebanese government. But officials also have made it clear that they believe Iran and Syria were involved in the attack.

"I don't have evidence that there were direct instructions," said one Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "But they were under the influence of the Iranian government."

The ties between Hezbollah, Tehran and Damascus are well documented and rarely in dispute. Hezbollah, a potent force in Lebanon, has been supported and guided by Iran and Syria since its beginnings in the early 1980s.

Tehran has maintained a flow of weapons - including rockets with a range of more than 120 miles - to Hezbollah military forces. U.S. and Israeli officials say the hardware has been flown to the Damascus airport and then trucked to southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah leaders deny that they are agents of Iran or Syria. But they publicly acknowledge Tehran's financial support, which some Western intelligence agencies say may amount to more than $200 million a year. Iranian officials have toured Hezbollah camps in southern Lebanon, and Iran maintains emissaries in the country to act as liaisons with the group.

Robert Malley, who was special assistant to President Clinton for Arab-Israeli issues, said Hezbollah is likely to seek ways to advance the interests of its benefactors.

"There is a very short list of countries that are prepared to help Hezbollah, so [it is] not about to do anything that would alienate them, and they're always more likely to do things they believe would serve Syrian and Iranian interests," Malley said.

Yet those factors do not lead inevitably to concerted action in every instance, he said.

"I think there's more local autonomy, a greater degree of local decision-making, than people give credit for," said Malley, who directs the Near East and North Africa program for the International Crisis Group in Washington, which deals with conflict resolution.

Experts noted that Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah has made it known he wanted to kidnap Israelis and use them as bargaining chips in a trade for at least three Lebanese prisoners held by Israel. Among them is Samir Sami Kuntar, whose band of militants was responsible for a 1979 attack that killed three members of an Israeli family and a police officer.

Magnus Ranstorp, a veteran Hezbollah expert now at the Swedish National Defense College, said Hezbollah could have had several motives.

For one, it might have hoped to provoke Israel into a military reaction that would increase the group's support in Lebanon at a critical moment, Ranstorp said. Hezbollah is under pressure from the United States and allies to disarm, in accordance with a U.N. resolution, he noted.

Or, Ranstorp said, the group might have been looking for a way to show its solidarity with Hamas, the Palestinian militant organization that has been under attack in the Gaza Strip for two weeks after an Israeli soldier was captured and taken there.

Ranstorp said that for now there can be only "a strong suspicion" that Iran participated in the latest seizure of Israeli soldiers. "But it would be inconceivable that Hezbollah did not inform Syria but also the Iranians in advance of this, particularly the Iranian intelligence," Ranstorp said.

Claude Moniquet, director of the European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center, a Brussels think tank, played down Hezbollah's autonomy.

"Whatever the reality of its local presence in the south of the country, and the poor area of Beirut ... Hezbollah has never been more than, and remains today, a simple political instrument of Tehran and, to a lesser extent, a tool Damascus uses to pressure Lebanon," Moniquet said.

Milton Bearden, a former CIA official who remains involved in Middle East affairs, said it was possible that some militants thought they had the green light to conduct such a raid, without thinking through the consequences.

"People will say they know why it happened, but they don't know," Bearden said. "Never discount the possibility of things in the Middle East to just spin out of control so easily that people say, 'How did we get here?'

"It is possible it was a gross miscalculation," he said, "which are responsible for many wars in the Middle East."

(Richter and Meyer reported from Washington and Rotella from Paris. Times staff writer Ken Ellingwood in Jerusalem contributed to this report.)


7. "This is Going to Be A Big War" -- by Dahr Jamail

"This is going to be a big war."

You can always spot them a mile away--he was white, middle-aged, overweight, hair cut close to hide the pattern baldness, red face, wearing a Harley Davidson motorcycle t-shirt and shorts. All of the aforementioned is acceptable in the Middle East, of course, minus the shorts. Aside from a few places like Beirut, wearing shorts in the Middle East isn't exactly being respectful of the native culture.

But when you are a mercenary, I suppose that's damned low on your priority list.

Then there was the other one-I noticed him in Chicago before we board our Royal Jordanian flight to Amman. A 30-something white man, eyes wide open, looking over his shoulder constantly, chewing gum so hard his jaw muscles protruded. Blue-flames tattooed on his right arm above the wrist-running up under his sleeve I don't know how far up his arm. His tan combat boots and tan backpack kind of gave him away too, despite his wearing civilian clothing.

During my flight I sat near a kind Palestinian man from the West Bank. The older gentleman works in Dallas, and is retiring from his electronics store which he is happy to tell me is being passed along to his kids. His wife remains in the West Bank, so that's why he's moving back home. I asked him what it's like to go home.

"I spend the night in Amman then the next day it takes sometimes the full day to cross the bridge and get through the checkpoints. We have the Jordanian border, the Israeli checkpoint, and another to get into the West Bank," he says, "Each time they take all our things out, search them and us, then if we're lucky we're waved through."

I ask him how he deals with it, personally, without losing his mind. "Oh, all I can do is laugh, because if I lose my temper, if anyone loses their temper, the soldiers [occupation soldiers] just go away for 3-4 hours until they feel like returning. So we all just stay calm and behave gently and with dignity. They have all the power. We have none. So what else can we do?"

Behaving like a typical Arab, he invites me to his home anytime I'm in the area.

Landing in the heat of Amman, I left the plane and walk past a Jordanian man holding a small piece of paper up which read, "Blackwater." Of course it's for one (or both) of the men I described above…and soon I see him greeting the man who prefers to wear shorts in the Middle East.

Not too much has changed in the airport in Amman, aside from the new Starbucks. Of course, the Cinnabon had already been here for at least a couple of years.

Meanwhile, plenty has changed in the region since I was here one year ago. Wednesday, after having two of their soldiers captured by Hezbollah fighters, the government of Israel has sent ground troops, backed by aircraft and artillery, into Southern Lebanon. It's the first ground operation by the Israelis in Lebanon since they withdrew from occupying Lebanon in 2000. Just what the Middle East needs-another country to be occupied; the move is akin to dumping jet fuel on a raging fire.

The prime minister of Israel, Ehud Olmert, referring to how his country would respond to having two of their soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah, told a joint news conference with visiting Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, "The Lebanese government is responsible. Lebanon will pay the price."

Adhering to his favorite policy of collective punishment, Olmert, added, "…those responsible for the attack will pay a high and painful price." So attack a country because a rebel group in south Lebanon captured two soldiers. And so the madness continues, as an Israeli air strike on a house in Gaza on what they claimed was targeting a "Hamas top militant leader" killed nine Palestinians, including seven children from one family.

Syrian Vice President Faruq al-Shara stated recently that Israel's occupation of Arab land lays at the root of the new crisis that found Israeli troops entering Lebanon. Let's have some more jet fuel. Looks like I've picked an interesting time to visit Syria.

Meanwhile, Baghdad burns as over 100 people have been killed in sectarian violence since Sunday.

A short flight has me landing in Damascas, then racing through the streets as warm air flows through the open taxi windows. The pale green lights mark the tops of minarets around the city, the rest of the lights twinkling in the background as we found our way to my hotel.

After checking in, I dropped my bag and began to walk out for some food, only to find Abu Talat at the front desk. A long bear hug and the typical cheek kissing of Arab men, and we meet again after over one year since we last were together. I'd given him the name of my hotel, but was suspect as to whether he would have a successful trip out of Baghdad, with the extremes of violence over the last three days there. He tends to not go far from home when that occurs, but alas, he decided to go after obtaining a promise from his son not to leave his home under any circumstances.

Also typical of Arab men, we walk down the sidewalk holding hands, en route to a café, talking a mile a minute. He tells me how horrible it is in Baghdad. He lists his family members and relatives, one by one, who have left already for good. "Those who can afford to fly are purchasing one way tickets Dahr," he says, "For they have no intention of coming back. Aside from my own children and wife, I am the only one of my relatives left in Iraq."

The fighting is everywhere, he tells me. Now that the U.S. military/Rumsfeld (who was just in Baghdad) and Khalilzad have declared war on the Shia Mehdi Army, accusing them of terrorism, all bets are off. Of course, the timing of this with Israelis attacks against Hezbollah couldn't be more perfect. Coincidence?

"The fighting is everywhere, and there is no way the Americans can control it now," Abu Talat adds, "The Shia are fighting each other for control of Basra, while also fighting the Sunni."

"It is civil war now in Iraq, no doubt," he continues, "But no matter who you ask, no one will admit it. Because people are too afraid to admit this. People prefer to deny it."

Even back at our hotel, there are at least two other Iraqis, who have come here for surgery, since all of the senior doctors have long since left Baghdad to save their own lives.

The next day, Thursday, we awoke with our eyes glued to al-Jazeera on the television. Israeli warplanes bombed Beirut's Rafiq al-Hariri airport. At least two air strikes were reported while Lebanese anti-aircraft guns fired feebly at the jets, according to witnesses. Israeli jets also bombed bridges linking south Lebanon to the rest of the country, and 22 civilians were killed last night by Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon.

In response to the bombings, Hezbollah claims to have fired 60 rockets into northern Israel.

The Israeli justification for bombing the airport in Beirut and pushing into southern Lebanon is that two of their soldiers were captured. In classic newspeak, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said of the incident, "It is an act of war by the state of Lebanon," conveniently omitting the bombings in the occupied territories, including civilians on a beach, by Israeli forces over the last weeks.

"This is going to be a big war," Abu Talat tells me while we watch plumes of smoke billowing from locations within Lebanon, "This is even more important for us to cover than Iraq, and you know how much I love Iraq."